Paloma Valencia emerges as a new right-wing darling in Colombia’s presidential race. And why Haiti is still struggling to organize a vote.
Ignacio Portes & Jorge C. Carrasco
ELECTIONS
Two become three in Colombia’s presidential race
As we explained last month, Colombia’s presidential race had two clear frontrunners at the start of the year: the leftist Iván Cepeda, backed by outgoing President Gustavo Petro, and right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella.
Cepeda got some good news from his first electoral test yesterday. The ruling Historic Pact coalition secured a record number of Senate seats in the legislative race, and no candidate won a solid vote tally in an alternative left-wing primary, making him the only truly competitive progressive nominee for the upcoming May 31 presidential race.
The story was quite different on the right, where a primary of centrist and right-wing parties amassed nearly 6 million votes, with more than 3 million ballots going to Paloma Valencia, a right-winger backed by two-time former President Álvaro Uribe.
Despite navigating multiple court cases over his alleged ties to paramilitary groups, support for Uribe rose again during the Petro administration, making him the country’s most popular politician according to some pollsters, with 46% of respondents telling Atlas Intel they have a favorable image of the former president. Endorsement from Uribe was decisive in raising Valencia’s profile in an election where turnout is not usually massive.
👉 Why it matters. While the eccentric De la Espriella gained favor among right-wing voters by promising an “iron fist” approach to cartels and guerrillas, Uribe has a proven track record in this regard, which may be more convincing to conservative voters. His ally, Valencia, also has some appeal for centrists given her history of congressional dealmaking, opening up avenues that De la Espriella might lack.
After yesterday’s results, Valencia was quick to reach out to centrist economist Juan Daniel Oviedo, who came second in her primary and outperformed most polls, to negotiate a place for him as a potential running mate. Valencia also defended Oviedo, who is openly gay, after comments from De la Espriella last week that were criticized as homophobic.
Valencia’s presidential odds, which stood around 10% this weekend, have jumped to 25% after the primary, overtaking De la Espriella, who dropped from 35% to 20%, according to Polymarket. As the sole left-wing candidate, Cepeda stands at 48%, though winning a runoff could prove difficult in a country where 54% have a negative image of the incumbent leftist president.
Despite the challenges, the ruling party was upbeat after the results came in, having improved its total number of seats in Congress. “It is clear that the Historic Pact has crushed these congressional elections. But we are not an absolute majority, so the idea of an alliance for life and prosperity should be maintained,” Petro said, as the first results came in.
But while the 25 seats secured by Petro’s Historic Pact will be its best-ever Senate tally, his coalition will lose all the seats reserved for Comunes, a group of former FARC guerrilla combatants that had been temporarily granted five Senate spots as part of the last round of peace agreements. With those seats eliminated, Colombia’s Senate will shrink from 108 to 103 members, and Petro will lose 5 reliable allies.
To pass bills through the Senate, a hypothetical Cepeda government would thus need perfect loyalty from the Liberals and the Green Alliance (which is unlikely), plus help from centrists like De la U, Colombia Now, or even some Conservatives, who have at times voted with Petro.
Final results from elections for the lower chamber of Congress are still unclear, as local votes are still being counted. However, the outlook is likely to be similar: no clear majority for either left or right, with centrists needed to pass legislation.
ELECTIONS
Haiti wants to hold a vote for the first time in a decade
Amid daunting conditions in which basic economic needs and public security are far from guaranteed for most citizens, Haiti has continued to make efforts to hold its first general election in a decade.
The Caribbean nation opened a 10-day registration period for political parties to submit their candidacies last week, with soldiers and police officers guarding the Provisional Electoral Council headquarters as party representatives collected paperwork.
Interim Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aimé, who has ruled the country alone since the dissolution of a transitional presidential council on February 7, has vowed to hold a first-round vote in late August and a runoff by early December.
But officials say these timelines are aspirational at best, in a country where 90% of its capital city, Port-au-Prince, is controlled by criminal gangs — groups which have displaced locals and upended most of the country.
👉 Why it matters. Haiti hasn’t been able to hold a nationwide vote since 2016, derailed first by political gridlock, then by the 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moïse, and now by a gang war that has forced at least 1.4 million people to relocate, shut thousands of schools and businesses, and killed more than 5,900 last year alone, according to United Nations data.
Interim police chief Vladimir Paraison told the Associated Press that his battered force is still preparing an election security plan, but offered no details. Haiti has fewer than two police officers for every 1,000 residents, and while there is no official data on gangs’ firepower, authorities believe that local criminal groups easily outgun the state.
Logistics may then be the trickiest part of holding a vote in Haiti. For some candidates, access to electoral zones may be only granted by boat or helicopter, as gangs open fire on cars using main roads.
Pierre Dieu-Donné Delice, founder of the new political party Tools for Another Haiti, said he fled his home after an armed assault and relocated his party headquarters to the capital.
While candidates dodge bullets, electoral authorities are keeping a business-as-usual attitude — announcing deadlines, assessing voting centers, and preparing for a contest that may still be months away. Before it was wound up, the presidential council identified 1,309 potential voting sites for an estimated 6.2 million voters, though many are in disputed or gang-dominated territories.
The UN Security Council has approved a new 5,550-member multinational mission tasked with re-establishing some semblance of law and order in Haiti, replacing a stalled Kenyan-backed deployment, but there is no deadline yet for the mission to arrive in the Haitian capital.
Economic costs are not insignificant either, given how little tax revenue is collected in Haiti. The expenditure to put on an election could be as much as USD 137 million for a first round alone, around 5% of the country’s total annual revenue of USD 2.5 billion.
For the time being, Haiti will continue to operate in a legitimacy vacuum. The country has lacked a single fully elected national institution since Moïse’s assassination. Fils‑Aimé, the unelected prime minister, now governs as the country’s sole authority, a situation that critics argue eliminates accountability and raises questions about who will certify electoral results if they ever materialize.
QUESTION OF THE WEEK
Last Friday, we gave you a list of four names for oil companies — Petrobras, Petrochile, Petroecuador and Petroperú — and asked you which was the false name. 68% of you got it right: Petrochile was the odd one out. Meanwhile, 32% guessed Petroperú.
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