Winners and losers from an oil price surge in Latin America. And an AI candidacy runs for Congress in Colombia.
Ignacio Portes & Jorge C. Carrasco
ELECTIONS
An AI avatar runs for a legislative seat in Colombia
Colombia’s election season starts this Sunday, as the country fully renovates its Congress, and some political parties hold primaries. The main focus, however, will be on the May 31 presidential vote and a potential runoff on June 21.
The legislative race is relevant on its own, but a curious case within it is worth covering in detail: that of the community-run, AI-fronted candidacy of “Gaitana,” an avatar that could take one of the seats reserved for indigenous representation.
The avatar’s decisions will be derived from online deliberations and executed by human representatives. Its logo on the ballot will be the letters “IA” (Spanish for AI, artificial intelligence), and the campaign will be conducted through a digital persona — even if the legal candidacy rests with a human person.
The project is led by activists from the Zenú indigenous community and was developed by mechatronics engineer Carlos Redondo, the legally registered candidate for the seat. His platform gathers legislative proposals into plain-language summaries, aggregates community votes and uses the results to direct how their congressional delegates cast ballots.
According to the team behind the project, more than 10,000 participants have already interacted with the system through the website gaitanaia.org, and every voting decision would be preceded by a binding online consultation.
👉 Why it matters. If Gaitana were to succeed at the ballot box, Colombia would see the first-ever seat directed by digital consensus rather than by the judgment of a single representative. This would test whether participatory technology can be integrated with collective indigenous decision-making and set a precedent that could be followed across the globe.
The atypical candidacy has forced regulators to confront a legal gap. Colombian law does not recognize AI systems as people, but authorities have agreed to a hybrid arrangement: humans can hold the seat and cast the votes, but only after the platform certifies that a majority of users agreed on what to do.
Colombia’s electoral registry office affirmed that the candidacy is valid because it is registered under Redondo’s name, even if the campaign brand and interface will center around the Gaitana avatar. Colombia’s National Electoral Council reportedly rejected the initial framing before accepting the hybrid model.
To make decisions within the Gaitana platform, users submit ideas, which the system summarizes. This is followed by a community debate and a distilled brief that the AI avatar will push whenever a congressional vote nears, condensing “two hundred pages into five infographics,” as Redondo puts it. The process ends with a headcount, aiming to reach a 50% +1 mandate to vote.
Redondo said Gaitana originated as an “update” of Zenú decision-making practices, in which community chiefs go from house-to-house to seek consensus, blended with Nordic-style participatory platforms that the group studied and adapted.
The avatar borrows the name of a legendary indigenous heroine. The campaign brands itself as an animal rights and environmentalist candidacy, aiming to reduce clientelism with a rules-based, transparent workflow.
Skeptics of the candidacy have raised pointed questions: Who audits the algorithm that filters proposals and converts them into infographics? What stops bots from capturing an online poll? Gaitana’s creators are untroubled by the latter, arguing that any manipulation would require coordinating more than 6,000 verified users — a threshold they consider prohibitive, given that only members of their small community should be able to register.
But as with other applications of the most recent tech buzzwords, caution should be warranted, as disappointment and letdowns are more common than success.
ECONOMY
LatAm’s winners and losers from global oil price hikes
War in the Middle East has once again put energy prices at the center of economic worries, with multiple oil-producing countries involved on both sides of the conflict and the US Treasury debating whether to intervene in oil futures markets to quell price hikes, which have taken US crude from USD 67 per barrel to nearly 90, a 32% jump in one week.
As with any oil shock, this one will come with winners and losers, and energy trade balances will determine much of that outcome. Countries that are net energy importers stand out as clear losers, while exporters have a significant economic opportunity, though price hikes at their local gas stations could also create social tension.
👉 Why it matters. Some of the biggest Latin American economies have changed their energy profile over the last decade, with former net exporters such as Mexico becoming import-dependent, while Brazil and Argentina are moving in the opposite direction.
As the chart below shows, small Central American nations stand to lose the most, with Haiti topping the list of concerns once again. The country already struggles with extreme poverty, and the fact that it imports more than 97% of its energy will only make it worse, adding another layer of worry to those working odd jobs to survive in cities controlled by gangs, which block roads and halt commerce daily.
While both nations share the island of Hispaniola, the Dominican Republic is far better positioned than Haiti despite similar energy import exposure — its tourism industry generates billions annually, enough to cushion the trade balance. The pain will still arrive, but it will simply hurt less.
Cuba’s troubles are likely worse than the chart suggests. The latest data is from 2023, and Cuban energy production has deteriorated sharply since then, while US pressure has severed its aid flows from Mexico and Venezuela.
In South America, the relatively prosperous Chile and Uruguay could take a hit, as their mines and farms depend on foreign fuel for power, importing 79.6% and 61.9% of their energy, respectively.
Mexico, which was a net exporter 10 years ago, has seen its state-owned energy giant Pemex gasping for air in an ocean of debt, and now also depends on fuel imports to feed its energy-hungry industry that exports to the US. While its 2023 stats don’t look as bad, Bolivia is likely to face a similar predicament, given its rapidly depleting gas reserves.
Argentina and Brazil, meanwhile, have moved the other way: from importers to exporters. Pre-salt oil deposits have allowed Brazil to run a surplus since 2018, while Argentina moved from a deficit to nearly neutral territory by 2023, and analysts expect a growing surplus in the years to come thanks to the development of its Vaca Muerta shale gas basin.
But no one stands to benefit more than Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela, all of whom export significantly more energy than they consume. Venezuela, in particular, could be on a bullish trajectory, as the US seeks to rebuild its battered oil industry.
It might not be completely plain sailing for Ecuador and Colombia though. In Ecuador, subsidy cuts imposed by President Daniel Noboa last year are still fresh, and another round of gas price hikes could bring back protests. In Colombia, President Gustavo Petro’s campaign to wean the nation off fossil fuels has halted exploration, so the energy surplus could be reduced if new sources don’t make up for the losses.
QUESTION OF THE WEEK
Three of these are the names of flagship oil companies in South America. Which is the odd one out?
- Petrobras
- Petrochile
- Petroecuador
- Petroperú
QUICK CATCH-UP
📉 Colombia’s 10-year yields are approaching Brazil’s, with the country’s benchmark note now exceeding 8% — a remarkable reversal from negative territory just three years ago. The trajectory reflects a familiar pattern: fiscal indiscipline eroding investor confidence and raising questions about the country’s ability to service its debt.
🪫 Two-thirds of Cuba was once again left in the dark after another electrical failure affected the country’s power grid. The island has struggled economically for a long time, but the situation has intensified since Donald Trump’s capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro in January, cutting off the country’s main source of oil.
🪖 A bill that could help convicted criminals from Chile’s last military dictatorship was approved this week in the Senate, thanks to the backing of right-wing legislators. President Gabriel Boric condemned the initiative, which offers house arrest benefits for the old and terminally ill with no exceptions, even for crimes against humanity.
📜 Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is looking to pass an electoral reform billthat would cut the number of seats in the Senate, reduce representation for smaller parties and slash government funding for political campaigns, in what critics see as an attempt to further entrench the power of her ruling Morena party.