A look at presidential favorites Iván Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella. And a border town in Peru’s Amazon threatens to become part of Brazil.
Ignacio Portes & Jorge C. Carrasco
COLOMBIA
Cepeda and de la Espriella lead the race to the presidency
Colombia is less than a month away from its March 8 primary and legislative elections, but attention is already fixed on the presidential vote on May 31. With leftist President Gustavo Petro unable to seek re-election, polls show his ally, Senator Iván Cepeda, and the lawyer and right-wing influencer Abelardo de la Espriella leading the field.
👉 Why it matters. The latest Atlas Intel survey shows a statistical tie between the two candidates, with de la Espriella on 32.1% and Cepeda on 31.4% — both far ahead of the centrist former Antioquia governor, Sergio Fajardo, polling at 7.6%.
Not unlike Petro’s, Cepeda’s biography is tied to the tragic history of Colombia’s left-wing guerrillas. He is the son of Manuel Cepeda, who was assassinated in 1994 while serving as senator for Unión Patriótica (UP), a political party founded by demobilized members of FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) guerrillas.
Although the FARC reached a peace agreement with the Colombian state in the 1980s, its political wing was brutally targeted in the years that followed. At least 4,153 UP militants were assassinated, kidnapped or forcibly disappeared, according to Colombia’s Center for Historical Memory.
A philosophy graduate, Iván Cepeda went into exile in Paris in 2000 after receiving death threats following the conviction of two military officers for his father’s murder. He returned to Colombia in 2004 and emerged as a prominent human rights advocate focused on peace negotiations. He later became a key supporter of Petro’s Historic Pact coalition.
Cepeda won the movement’s internal primary last year, positioning himself as the heir to Petro’s agenda of energy transition, social reform and anti-corruption efforts. Colombia’s National Electoral Council barred him from participating in March 8’s broader inter-party left-wing primary, citing a legal prohibition against running in two such contests. Cepeda denounced the ruling as “anti-democratic,” though it does not prevent him from competing in the May election.
His main rival, Abelardo “El Tigre” de la Espriella, rose to prominence as a defense attorney and social media figure. He has since drawn support away from allies of former President Álvaro Uribe — including the former Medellín mayor and presidential candidate Federico Gutiérrez — to emerge as the conservative contender with the clearest path to a runoff.
De la Espriella has pledged to rule with an “iron fist” against crime and corruption, issues that resonate strongly with voters across Latin America. He has promised to end Petro’s dialogue with armed left-wing groups, a cornerstone of the current administration, and has instead vowed to resume the fumigation of coca crops and expand bombing campaigns against guerrilla encampments.
While Petro and Cepeda are frequently criticized for their alleged ties or sympathies with left-wing guerrillas and Venezuela’s government, de la Espriella faces scrutiny over his own connections to Caracas.
One of his most prominent former clients was Alex Saab, who was arrested last week in Caracas and is viewed by US investigators as being a key frontman for Venezuela’s ruling elite. Prosecutors believe Saab could expose multiple corruption cases if he cooperates with authorities.
De la Espriella has said that Saab concealed his ties with Nicolás Maduro’s government and that he ceased representing him several years ago. He has also pointed to a book he wrote calling for Maduro’s arrest, casting himself as being in agreement with the hard-line approach toward Venezuela embraced by Donald Trump.
INDIGENOUS RIGHTS
A Peruvian border town threatening to become part of Brazil
Deep in the Peruvian Amazon, a neglected border town has grown weary of what its residents describe as the national government’s “indifference,” and is looking across the river to Brazil for relief.
Late last month, community leaders in Bellavista Callarú, an indigenous Tikuna settlement, issued a 30-day ultimatum to authorities in Lima to restore security and basic public services, warning that they would otherwise seek to be “incorporated” by neighboring Brazil.
The threat is partly rooted in cultural continuity. The Tikuna are a cross-border people present in Peru, Brazil and Colombia — and they form Brazil’s largest indigenous group, with more than 74,000 people according to the 2022 census.
👉 Why it matters. The demand of the Tikuna people in Bellavista Callarú should not be interpreted as a secessionist movement but as a desperate plea for state presence. It underscores how crime and violence in Latin America are no longer confined to major cities, increasingly encroaching into rural and indigenous communities.
Bellavista Callarú lies in the Yavarí district of Loreto, in the province of Mariscal Ramón Castilla, a remote jungle region navigated largely by motorized canoes. For residents, assistance is often easier to obtain across an international border than by traveling down the Amazon River to the nearest Peruvian city.
Local leaders say police patrols are virtually nonexistent, even as organized crime linked to drug trafficking has expanded rapidly in recent years, filling the vacuum with extortion networks and contract killings.
Across Loreto, residents and community leaders describe a growing transnational criminal economy, fueled by cocaine trafficking routes and illegal logging, coupled with sporadic law enforcement and a justice system that is difficult to access.
Deficient health and education services have compounded those grievances. Community leaders say the local health center is staffed by two nursing technicians and has no doctors or obstetric specialists. High-risk pregnancies are transported some 25 kilometers down the Amazon River to Santa Rosa, or across the border into Brazil. The town’s school suffers from crumbling infrastructure, forcing students to share makeshift classrooms in spaces such as dining halls.
The figure most closely associated with the ultimatum is Mayor Desiderio Flores Ayambo, who is advocating for Bellavista Callarú to be elevated to district status, which would unlock direct funding and staffing from regional authorities. The proposal has stalled in Peru’s bureaucracy, despite Bellavista Callarú’s population of 1,118 residents being comparable to that of other recently created districts in Loreto.
In daily life, many residents already feel closer to neighboring countries than to Lima. Cross-border trade is so essential that the Brazilian real and Colombian peso have become the town’s de facto currencies, largely displacing the Peruvian sol.
While Peru’s caretaker President José Jerí has sought to address the country’s broader security crisis — including by imposing a 30-day state of emergency in Lima — his policies are far from reaching distant border communities like Bellavista Callarú.
🌳 You should also read: Why people in the Amazon die earlier than other Brazilians
QUESTION OF THE WEEK
We asked last week what Michelle Bachelet’s occupation was before entering politics. Respondents were in a three-way tie between doctor, diplomat and social worker. Bachelet was a pediatrician also specializing in public health. Prior to winning the presidency in 2006 (and again in 2010), she served as health minister from 2000 to 2002.
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