Three Latin Americans are favored to be the next UN secretary-general. And the re-capture of Nicolás Maduro’s frontman Alex Saab in Caracas.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Could Michelle Bachelet be the next UN Secretary General?
The race to replace Portugal’s António Guterres as the new United Nations secretary-general is underway, and the history of regional rotation means that several Latin American candidates are among the favorites to land the position.
The only figure from the region to have held the post was Peru’s Javier Pérez de Cuéllar (1982-1991), and his stint also came after an European (Austria’s Kurt Waldheim). Both Asia and Africa have held the secretary-general’s office since, so the excitement among Latin American diplomats is palpable — as there are a few who think they might be next.
Prediction markets agree, with three Latin Americans among their top 5 candidates for secretary-general, although betting volume remains low. That list includes Chile’s former President Michelle Bachelet, whose nomination was confirmed this week by outgoing President Gabriel Boric.
👉 Why it matters. Bachelet’s nomination was launched with the joint backing of Brazil and Mexico, the two largest countries in the region, giving her candidacy additional weight if the regional rotation principle is ultimately followed. But opposition to her candidacy might outweigh support, as her candidacy faces resistance from the Chilean right wing to the US government, whose seat on the UN Security Council grants it veto power over the appointment.
At first glance, Bachelet’s résumé fits the position well. Coming from a family that suffered under Augusto Pinochet’s military dictatorship, she then led two of the successful Concertación governments that slashed poverty and inequality while consolidating Chile’s stable democratic institutions.
The broad coalitions she led in government built her profile as a moderate progressive capable of the consensus-building needed at the UN, and her additional experience as Chile’s health and defense minister gave her technocratic expertise to rise in the UN bureaucracy. Bachelet became the first-ever head of the UN Women programme in 2010 and the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights in 2018.
But her candidacy is not even on firm ground at home, where President-elect José Antonio Kast has remained tight-lipped about whether he will endorse her. Kast said he will not make a public call until his inauguration on March 11, and he is already facing pressure from both the right and left to decide one way or the other.
Even more important is whether US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, would object to her nomination. Trump will be the toughest nut to crack, as his administration already worked to derail her bid for the UN’s top human rights post in 2018, during his first term in office.
Bachelet got that job regardless, and ended up being instrumental in delegitimizing Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro among the Latin American left, as her office denounced arbitrary detentions, torture and thousands of extrajudicial executions committed by the regime in 2019 — all of which might have helped mend fences with Trump. But Bachelet has also clashed with Trump during his second term, criticizing his military capture of Maduro.
Her final act as High Commissioner might also raise doubts for Xi, as her report denouncing “serious human rights violations” against the Uyghur and other predominantly Muslim communities was slammed by China, although Beijing has seemingly made peace with Bachelet since.
With all those obstacles in mind, a closer look at the two other Latin American candidates — Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan and Argentina’s Rafael Grossi — is also in order, so stay tuned to future editions to learn who they are and why they might stand a stronger chance of winning.
VENEZUELA
Saab arrest shows deepening US-Caracas cooperation
At the very beginning of 2026, few would have predicted that in just one month’s time, the FBI and Venezuela’s intelligence services would be conducting a joint operation in Caracas to capture Nicolás Maduro’s top economic frontman.
Yet that is what happened this week, as a nighttime raid led to the arrest of businessman Alex Saab — once seen by the US as a potential star witness that could unlock cases against Venezuela’s top officials — and Raúl Gorrín, known for buying Venezuela’s influential Globovisión TV in 2013 and turning it into a pro-government channel.
Saab and Gorrín are among the strongest examples of what Venezuelan observers call the “Boliburguesía” (or “Bolivarian bourgeoisie”), meaning well-connected businessmen who built or grew their fortunes by helping officials siphon state resources and launder money abroad, among other favors.
Saab’s case has been particularly noticeable, as he has already been under arrest in the US, accused of bribery and money laundering linked to his privileged access to subsidized dollars from Venezuela’s Central Bank. He was pardoned in 2023 amid negotiations between Maduro and the Biden administration, which swapped him for a group of US prisoners.
People close to the Trump administration, however, highlighted that Biden’s pardon left the door open to arrest Saab once more: “If at any time [Saab] violates one or more of the aforementioned terms, as determined by me in my complete discretion (or by a future President in his or her complete discretion), this pardon may be voided in its entirety,” former Trump official Marshall Billingslea said last month, quoting Biden’s decree.
👉 Why it matters. The arrests (and potential extraditions) are another sign that Venezuela’s interim President Delcy Rodríguez is toeing Washington’s line since Maduro’s capture. It will also help build the legal case against Maduro and other officials, as the US pushes to dismantle the Chavista state and transition to a friendlier, democratic regime.
The news came days after the arrival of chargé d’affaires Laura Dogu to the US Embassy in Caracas, where she promised to build a “friendly, stable, prosperous and democratic Venezuela.”
Shortly after the arrests, the government-controlled Venezuelan parliament also took the first steps to pass a broad-reaching amnesty law that would permit the mass-scale liberation of political prisoners, the return of exiled opposition figures, the re-hiring of public servants fired by Chavismo for disloyalty to the regime and the restitution of assets seized by the government.
A cursory glance at the amnesty’s full text suggests that it was not written by Chavistas, as it admits that “basic republican consensuses were eroded (…) over the last 27 years” — meaning, since the rise of Hugo Chávez to the Venezuelan presidency, among other eye-catching concessions.
Assembly head Jorge Rodríguez, the president’s brother, said that he was “sorry” for the number of people in jail, calling on lawmakers to pass the bill as soon as possible and saying they would have to “swallow some bitter pills.”
QUESTION OF THE WEEK
What was Michelle Bachelet’s occupation before entering politics?
- Air Force general
- Career diplomat
- Doctor
- Social worker
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