⚽ World Cup hopes and disappointments

South American teams shoot for the stars in the World Cup — and often reach them.

Ignacio Portes

WORLD CUP

Will South America’s high hopes hold up in the World Cup?

As one of the hosts, Mexico anchored our last newsletter. Mexico won its opener comfortably and hopes to finish atop Group A so it can stage knockout games at the Azteca. Plucky Haiti also made its debut this weekend, troubling Scotland before falling 1-0, while Panama prepares to kick off its second World Cup campaign against Ghana.

But the region’s real powerhouses are in South America, the source of every world champion outside of Europe: 

  • 5 from Brazil (an all-time high), 
  • 3 from Argentina and 
  • 2 from Uruguay — though Uruguay’s fans will tell you the count is actually four, adding the 1924 and 1928 Olympic gold medals, the sport’s premier tournaments before the World Cup existed.

👉 Why it matters. The world’s most anticipated tournament has become a genuine global phenomenon in recent decades, with growing fan bases in Asia and Africa. But its roots remain firmly in Europe and South America, and South America comes to a standstill when its teams play. Having won nearly half of all World Cups since the first edition in 1930 — 10 of 22 — South America stands toe to toe with Europe, which has won the other 12, as the heart and soul of the competition.

The defending champion, Argentina, makes its debut today against Algeria, in what is likely the last World Cup for Lionel Messi, who has dominated the sport for two decades. The diminutive left-footed genius drew comparisons to Diego Maradona throughout his career, which he capped by scoring twice in the most thrilling final in memory, a 3-3 draw won 4-2 on penalties over France in 2022.

Argentina has stayed strong since, winning a second consecutive Copa América in 2024, topping South American World Cup qualifying and beating Brazil home and away, including a 4-1 rout in Buenos Aires.

But injuries have piled up. In defense alone, goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez has a fractured finger; starting center-backs Cristian Romero and Lisandro Martínez are returning from long layoffs; and muscle problems will sideline left-back Nicolás Tagliafico for the group stage and rule Marcos Acuña out of the tournament entirely.

Soon to turn 39, Messi no longer has the blistering dribbling that once won games on his own, so the comparison to 1990 feels inevitable. That tournament came four years after the Maradona-led triumph of 1986. Argentina had the grit to reach a second straight final, but injuries and an aging squad left it a weaker side.

Brazil has looked well off its best, churning through three coaches since Qatar 2022 and turning, in a rare move, to a foreign hire — Italy’s Carlo Ancelotti — last year in a bid to restore its standing before this tournament.

The team is still plainly competitive, anchored by a world-class central defensive pairing of Gabriel and Marquinhos, who carried their clubs to this year’s Champions League final, and fronted by high-class attackers like Vinícius and Raphinha, stars at Real Madrid and Barcelona.

But the talent does not look the equal of past champions: the Ronaldinho-Rivaldo-Ronaldo attack of 2002, Romário at his peak in 1994 or the Pelé-led teams that won in 1958, 1962 and 1970.

Fullback may be the most glaring downgrade: Brazil once produced the world’s very best, but had to make do with an out-of-position Róger Ibáñez at right back and the solid but little-known Douglas Santos on the left in its rocky opener against Morocco.

The match ended as a 1-1 draw, confirming Morocco’s momentum after its surprise fourth-place finish in 2022, but Brazil could still win its group with victories over the less talented Haiti and Scotland.

Still, picturing Brazil as champions is much harder than it used to be, as the team has not beaten a European side in a knockout game since the 2002 final. 

Uruguay, another of the region’s storied teams, was also a touch disappointed with its debut, coming from behind to draw 1-1 with Saudi Arabia after a Jekyll-and-Hyde display. It was far better after halftime, a period in which it deserved to win.

If Uruguay finishes second in its group, a classic knockout match against Argentina could be set up in the round of 32 (assuming, of course, that Argentina wins its own group). The game could mean much more than bragging rights in the Río de la Plata, as Uruguay is coached by the eccentric Argentine Marcelo Bielsa, who became a villain back home after presiding over an Argentine first-round exit in 2002.

Paraguay entered its first World Cup since 2010 with high hopes, having long been a difficult opponent even for the best national teams. It came within a missed quarterfinal penalty of eliminating Spain that year — the eventual champion — and took France, the 1998 winner, to a golden-goal finish a decade earlier.

But its opener against the US proved disastrous. Paraguay was outclassed from the first minute and could have lost by more than the final 4-1 scoreline suggests. Although the home team is better than the old football heads are willing to give them credit for, Paraguay will need to regroup before facing Australia and Turkey to keep its hopes of a deep run alive.

Ecuador’s current crop of players is probably the best in the country’s history, even if top goalscorer Enner Valencia, at 36, has lost a step. But it, too, started poorly, hitting the woodwork three times against Ivory Coast before tiring out and conceding a late goal to lose 1-0. Fortunately for Ecuador, its next test will come against Curaçao, perhaps the weakest team in the tournament, which conceded 7 goals during its first outing.

Finally, Colombia will launch its campaign tomorrow — a winnable tie versus debutants Uzbekistan. But the real challenge will come against Portugal, which has one of its best-ever squads and is chasing a first title.


QUESTION OF THE WEEK

Last week, we asked which South American team hosted and won the first World Cup, in 1930. Some 68% of you got it right: Uruguay. Argentina did not host until 1978, when it won its first title. Brazil hosted in 1950 and 2014 but took neither trophy — only the two greatest traumas in its footballing history.


QUICK CATCH-UP

🗳️ Eight days after the presidential runoff, the gap between Keiko Fujimori and Roberto Sánchez remains razor-thin. With 99% of ballots counted, Fujimori leads with 50.097% of valid votes — but her edge is trending up. Sánchez’s supporters have called for a march in Lima on Saturday to call for a recount.

💣 The US Southern Command killed Tren de Aragua leader Héctor “El Niño” Guerrero this weekend, in what Donald Trump called a “coordinated” attack with Washington’s “close friends” in the Venezuelan government. Born in Venezuela, the Tren de Aragua gang has expanded throughout the continent and is accused of crimes from Chile to the US.

💰 Argentina’s cabinet chief, Manuel Adorni, filed a sworn affidavit attributing his unexplained wealth to undeclared cryptocurrency holdings from 2014. Adorni has faced corruption allegations for months, but retains the backing of President Javier Milei, even as top figures inside the Milei administration have openly criticized Adorni. 

👶 Chilean President José Antonio Kast voiced support for a bipartisan reform bill doing the rounds in Chilean parliament, which expands infant daycare services to help more women enter the work force. The government will subsidize much of the expansion, sparing small companies the added cost.

⚖️ The owners of the iconic Jet Set Dominican nightclub, whose roof collapsed last year and killed 236 people, will stand trial for involuntary manslaughter, which carries a maximum sentence of two years. The ruling disappointed the victims’ families, who wanted homicide charges instead.

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