De la Espriella’s first round win signals a likely right-wing turn for Colombia. And a growing number of Latin Americans want to copy China’s development model.
Ignacio Portes & Jorge C. Carrasco
COLOMBIA
De la Espriella heads to runoff as favorite over Cepeda
As we flagged in last week’s preview of Colombia’s election, the chances of right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella rose steadily in the lead-up to the vote. Not only did the latest polls put him head-to-head with the government-backed candidate, Iván Cepeda, but his rise in prediction markets after the May 25 polling blackout suggested that unpublished surveys rated him even higher.
The quick vote count last Sunday confirmed that the trend was real: with 100% of votes counted, De la Espriella took 43.7% of ballots, finishing ahead of Cepeda’s 40.9%. Establishment right-winger Paloma Valencia collapsed, collecting just 6.9% of votes, with many of her supporters shifting allegiances towards De la Espriella as the strongest right-wing alternative.
👉 Why it matters. De la Espriella is now the clear favorite to become Colombia’s next president, as Valencia’s first-round votes are likely to migrate in his direction for the June 21 runoff. Valencia and her top backer, former right-wing President Álvaro Uribe, moved quickly to endorse De la Espriella for the second round, immediately after their defeat became clear.
Prediction markets now have De la Espriella as the 1-to-5 favorite to win the runoff, while Cepeda’s chances dropped to 20%. The two remaining candidates’ teams are discussing the conditions to organize a televised debate between them.
Outgoing President Gustavo Petro said he did not trust the preliminary results, accusing the company that organizes it of software manipulation. Colombian analysts do not believe that significant differences will arise between the quick count and the final count, which Petro said he would respect, so controversy is unlikely to escalate.
Cepeda echoed Petro’s complaints on the night of the vote, but later played down his own remarks, saying that any irregularities that might have been detected were insufficient to claim fraud. The left-wing candidate also protested about interference from Ecuador, whose President Daniel Noboa promised to eliminate tariffs on Colombian goods after a call with De la Espriella two days before the election.
The first-round leader, meanwhile, said Petro’s words were part of an attempt to “stay in power indefinitely, ignoring the will of the people.” He also called on “the United States and other democratic countries” to oversee the runoff, nodding at a future alliance with Donald Trump if his victory is confirmed.
De la Espriella spoke behind bullet-proof glass, following a violent campaign that included the assassination of presidential pre-candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay by FARC guerrilla dissidents in August 2025. He proudly claimed to be “willing to give [his] life for Colombia, if that’s what it takes.”
A high-profile defense attorney, De la Espriella has always faced questions about his clients, which ranged from paramilitary leaders to businessman Alex Saab, recently extradited to the US for acting as a frontman for Venezuela’s deposed leader Nicolás Maduro.
De la Espriella’s campaign has imitated other right-wing presidents in the region, such as El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele and Argentina’s Javier Milei, promising tough-on-crime policies and economic liberalization, as well as an end to Petro’s “Total Peace” approach towards guerrillas, which has looked to de-escalate the conflict between the Colombian state and rebel groups in the country.
GEOPOLITICS
Latin Americans look to China amid growing regional uncertainty
In a time of political uncertainty across the Western hemisphere, with right-wing movements questioning long-held tenets of the liberal democratic consensus, many are quietly reorienting their worldviews. And as Europe and the US lose prestige, China is standing out as one of the biggest beneficiaries.
These are the findings from the AMLAT Radar 2026 survey, organized by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, Nueva Sociedad magazine and Latinobarómetro, which polled 12,000 people across ten Latin American countries last year.
The survey showed that Latin Americans are turning their heads towards Asia, with 36% of respondents saying they view China’s development model as the best for their country. Japan and the US followed behind, with 31% support for each.
The results were in stark contrast to the previous survey in 2022, when the US led this category with 44% of positive responses, while China stood significantly behind at 29%. Germany and Canada were second and third back then, and have also lost territory in the last few years, falling by roughly 10 percentage points each.
China gained ground in several other areas. Some 19% of Latin Americans see it as the best global leader in combating poverty and inequality (up from 9% in 2022), while 51% see it as the best promoter of science and education (up from 44% in the previous survey). Even in areas where the Asian giant struggles, such as human rights, its image has improved overall, from 2.4% support in 2022 to almost 9% in 2026.
👉 Why it matters. While the US is still seen as the world’s top economic and military power, the rise of China in public opinion mimics what’s been playing out in other areas. China is already the leading trade partner for most South American nations, a position the US held in the early 2000s, and bilateral trade between China and the region reached a record USD 518 billion in 2024.
Chinese leadership is also looking towards the region, with Beijing last year publishing its third policy paper on Latin America since 2008, doubling down on infrastructure, renewable energy and technology cooperation.
That cooperative approach has challenged the narratives pushed by Washington, as respondents do not perceive Beijing as a threat. Instead, China is admired for its technological leadership in breakthrough areas such as artificial intelligence.
Only 4.7% of respondents saw Chinese President Xi Jinping as the least trustworthy global leader, far behind Donald Trump who stood first with 25.3%. The US head of state raised twice as much skepticism as Vladimir Putin (second with 12.3%) as deportation threats, tariffs and military actions in the Caribbean heated up Washington’s relationship with Latin America.
Mexico registered the most hostile view of Trump, with a net impact score of -65 points, reflecting a year of intense bilateral friction over migration, trade and the war on drugs. Resistance towards Trump’s agenda was also evident in questions about the top priorities that Latin Americans looked for in their national leaders: trade promotion and defending national sovereignty.
Last but not least, the poll also focused on subjective perceptions, with 70% of respondents agreeing that “an era of wars and conflicts” is beginning, resulting in growing anxiety and skepticism about the future.
🇨🇳 You should also read: Chinese investments in Brazil soar. So does its soft power.
QUESTION OF THE WEEK
In last week’s edition, we asked for the name of the last Colombian president who came from the left-wing faction of the Liberal Party, back in the 1990s. Our readers showed their knowledge of the region, with 67% of respondents correctly pointing to Ernesto Samper, who took office in 1994 after succeeding César Gaviria, a centrist technocrat of the same party.
QUICK CATCH-UP
📣 Celebrating the second anniversary of her presidential win, Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum gave an impassioned speech against the US, which is looking to arrest on-leave Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya on drug trafficking allegations. Sheinbaum said that Washington “comes for some people first, then for a few more, until the Department of Justice becomes the main elector in Mexico.”
🛫 Iran’s national football team will be headquartered in Mexico during the upcoming World Cup, traveling to the US from their base in Tijuana before match days to minimize tensions between the two countries. Iran and the US are currently under a fragile ceasefire agreement following months of bombings, while Mexico is seen as a neutral party in the conflict.
😢 Honduras is shaken after a massacre in the Colón department that left 20 rural workers dead, and the kidnapping and murder of five policemen in Cortés shortly afterward. Recently sworn-in President Nasry Asfura vows tougher punishments against organized crime groups, as Honduras stands as the most violent country in Central America, with 27 murders per 100,000 residents.
🪖 A Guyanese soldier who was patrolling the border with Venezuela was wounded after a shootout in the disputed area. The Venezuelan government described the case as a “false flag operation” to stoke tensions and discredit Caracas, which has claimed the Essequibo area for decades and is currently pleading its case before the International Court of Justice in The Hague.