The forces that tried to steal the presidency in 2023 are losing ground in Guatemala. Diminishing press freedoms add more worries about Ecuador’s democratic future.
Ignacio Portes & Jorge C. Carrasco
GUATEMALA
Bernardo Arévalo’s arduous judicial cleanup
Guatemala’s 2023 election cycle ranks among the most tainted in recent Latin American history, with the country’s political establishment having banned three leading presidential candidates before trying to stop a fourth from taking office.
The overt anti-democratic push began when courts disqualified indigenous left-wing leader Thelma Cabrera and conservative businessman Roberto ArzĂş. The Supreme Electoral Court then issued a third ban against Carlos Pineda, a populist outsider whose poll numbers had surged after the earlier disqualifications.
Yet another overlooked regime critic was allowed to run — and he won. Bernardo Arévalo, a moderate progressive, enjoyed a late surge and slipped into the runoff with just 12% of the vote. He then defeated establishment-approved candidate Sandra Torres.
Guatemala’s attorney general’s office, led by Consuelo Porras, did everything in its power to block the inauguration. Her prosecutors tried to suspend ArĂ©valo’s party, raided voting storage facilities to open ballot boxes, and openly sought to annul the election.
ArĂ©valo, whose father was a former president forced into exile after the CIA-orchestrated coup of 1954, warned that another coup attempt was underway. But with diplomatic backing from the Biden administration and mobilization by Guatemala’s indigenous organizations, he took office in January 2024 after repeated clashes with the country’s courts.
👉 Why it matters. Against that backdrop, the battle for Guatemala’s judiciary has defined ArĂ©valo’s presidency, as young reformers seek to dismantle a discredited establishment that has fought to shield the country’s entrenched political elites.
Porras clung to her post despite calls for her resignation from the day ArĂ©valo took office. Her term finally ended this weekend, and ArĂ©valo replaced her with Gabriel GarcĂa Luna, a career judiciary official rather than a political insider.
“In a democratic and republican system of government, the attorney general’s office cannot be used as a weapon that serves the interests of a group. This means that all selective prosecution must come to an end,” GarcĂa Luna said in his inaugural remarks, pledging to shut down offices that had targeted political rivals.
Porras’s exit was the most symbolic (her critics threw street parties in celebration) but Guatemala had many more consequential battles over its judiciary this year. Congress installed an entirely new Supreme Electoral Tribunal after the 2023 debacle, and the decisive Constitutional Court underwent a contentious renewal of its bench.
These nominations can be hard to follow, as members are chosen indirectly. The Constitutional Court includes one representative selected by the San Carlos de Guatemala University (USAC), another by the country’s bar association (CANG) and one each from the three branches of government. The process for electoral court nominations is more complicated still, also involving private universities.
That meant much of this year’s political energy went into obscure university elections, full of sleazy procedural maneuvering by seasoned insiders, as prevailing in these institutions could open the door to reforming the country’s courts.
Reformists sympathetic to ArĂ©valo gained ground in the bar association but struggled in universities. Meanwhile, Congress is still controlled by a majority of old-guard lawmakers, so the results were mixed. But the light cast on Guatemala’s opaque judiciary will have lasting effects.
ECUADOR
Press freedom is under growing threat under Daniel Noboa
Ecuador’s former left-wing President Rafael Correa used to draw criticism for trampling press freedoms. But the country’s right-wing incumbent, Daniel Noboa, is shaping up no better — as watchdogs warn about judicial pressure and economic strangulation of local media.
Those pressures combine with direct threats against journalists from state actors and organized crime alike, raising alarms about growing authoritarianism in a country that has curtailed civil liberties in the name of fighting drug cartels and barred the biggest opposition party from next year’s local elections.
The latest Reporters Without Borders (RSF) index ranks Ecuador 125th out of 180 countries on press freedom, down 31 spots in a single year — and reaching lower than in any year under Correa. RSF cites a climate of “self-censorship and hostility, marked by the rise of criminal gangs and drug cartels,” but also “new regulatory constraints and risks for media outlets and journalists.”
Data from Fundamedios, Ecuador’s leading press freedom watchdog, shows a sharp rise in violence against journalists, including six killings — a figure surpassed in the region only by Mexico. “For a country of Ecuador’s size, this is absolutely disproportionate,” CĂ©sar Ricaurte, executive director of Fundamedios, told The Brazilian Report.
👉 Why it matters. The erosion of press freedom has unfolded alongside Noboa’s broader strongman turn, marked by expanded emergency powers and tightening constraints on political competition. Seeking to dispel concerns about an authoritarian drift, Noboa announced last week that he would let the country’s state of exception lapse on June 1. The measures have done little to curb Ecuador’s runaway violence.
Ricaurte says the territorial spread of violence sets this moment apart. “This is not only happening at the national level,” he said. “We are seeing local governments acting, sometimes in complicity with organized crime, to intimidate journalists. In several areas, it is almost impossible to practice independent journalism.”
Fundamedios has begun designating parts of the country as “silenced zones,” where reporters face constant threats or retreat into self-censorship.
The pressure extends beyond violence. Ricaurte describes a sustained campaign of judicial harassment, in which journalists and outlets face lawsuits filed by public officials at every level of government. One growing tactic involves invoking personal data protection laws against journalists, despite these rules’ explicit exemptions for journalistic activity.
At the same time, Ecuador’s media ecosystem is hollowing out. Long-running newspapers have closed their doors, changed hands under opaque circumstances, or quietly shifted editorial lines. Quito is now one of the few Latin American capitals without a printed daily newspaper. “We don’t know who the real owners are in many of these transactions,” Ricaurte said. “What we do see is a sudden alignment with government narratives.”
As traditional outlets disappear, pseudo-media platforms have rushed in to fill the void — mimicking news organizations while functioning as propaganda tools, often deployed to attack critical journalists and amplify official narratives. The line between state communication and coordinated harassment is blurring.
The right to protest is also in question. Indigenous and environmentalist groups have faced frozen bank accounts and administrative sanctions based on classified intelligence reports that offer no path to legal defense. “You are not told what you are accused of, or before which judge,” Ricaurte said. “That is a situation of absolute legal defenselessness.”
Of 230 attacks on journalists registered by his organization last year, 114 were attributed to state agents. “Without freedom of expression, judicial independence and competitive elections,” Ricaurte said, “it becomes very difficult to speak about a functioning democracy.”
QUESTION OF THE WEEK
Last week, we asked you which famous Latin American billionaires do not control a large media group. The answer was Argentina’s Marcos GalperĂn, the founder of Mercado Libre. 52% of respondents got it right, while 48% guessed Brazil’s Marinho brothers, who own Globo, the country’s biggest media conglomerate.
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