Guerrilla attacks hit civilians ahead of Colombia’s presidential vote. And Milei pins Malvinas hopes on Trump’s clash with the UK.
Ignacio Portes & Jorge C. Carrasco
POLITICAL VIOLENCE
Guerrilla attacks put Petro’s peace talks in the spotlight
Colombia’s electoral process is once again being disrupted by violence, after dozens of attacks — including car bombs, roadside explosions and drones — shook multiple departments across the Pacific region, reigniting fears about armed conflict in a country with a history already marred by political violence.
The deadliest attack came on April 25, when a cylinder bomb was detonated on the Pan-American Highway near CajibĂo, in the department of Cauca. The bomb blew up a passenger bus and other civilian vehicles, resulting in at least 20 deaths and 45 injuries.
Several days later, the Central Command (EMC) of FARC dissident groups led by Iván Mordisco took the blame for the bombing, describing it as a “tactical error” that killed innocent civilians.
According to the Colombian army, Mordisco’s group had set up a roadblock to attract military attention and then blow them up with explosives. But the military discovered their ruse, and the group detonated their bomb in haste when officials surprised them. On April 29, Colombian police forces captured Alex Vitonco Andela (also known as Mi Pez), a FARC dissident accused of organizing the bombings.
👉 Why it matters. The wave of violence puts Colombia’s national security debate in the spotlight just one month before the May 31 presidential election. The “Total Peace” strategy pursued by President Gustavo Petro, which looked to bring all illegal combatants to the negotiating table, is coming under scrutiny after years of stalemate.
Right-wingers blamed Petro for emboldening guerrilla groups, saying his policies allowed dissidents of previous peace processes to regroup and expand. “This is not structural violence; this is a consequence of the Total Peace policies that allowed illicit (coca) plantations and enriched illegal groups,” said Paloma Valencia, one of the presidential frontrunners.
Left-wing candidate and Petro ally Iván Cepeda condemned the attacks unequivocally, but suggested they could be aimed at damaging his campaign and benefiting Valencia and other right-wing competitors, such as Abelardo de la Espriella.
“A legitimate concern arises about whether these events seek to generate a climate of fear that benefits the interests of far-right sectors who insist on destabilizing the country and hindering its democratic process. I ask authorities to clarify this context and other possible motivations,” Cepeda said.
The dynamics of Colombia’s armed conflict have shifted since 2024. The Total Peace policies launched by Petro in 2022 initially pursued negotiations and ceasefires with multiple armed groups, including the FARC dissident Central Command and the National Liberation Army (ELN).
But limited progress, repeated ceasefire violations and internal fractures undermined confidence in talks. The government ended the truce with Mordisco and later halted negotiations with the ELN after their shocking attacks in Catatumbo, which killed more than 100 people.
In February 2025, Petro replaced Defense Minister Iván Velásquez — a lawyer known for his work on corruption and human rights — with army officer Pedro Sánchez. He also reframed his approach to armed groups and switched from discussing root causes that led to violent conflict to describing them as terrorists and drug traffickers.
“Those who attacked and killed … civilians in CajibĂo — many of them indigenous — are terrorists, fascists, and drug traffickers. The groups of Iván Mordisco in Cauca are delinquents and criminals against humanity, and they must be treated as such. They want the fascist far right to govern Colombia because they know that with them, they can conduct their illicit cocaine and gold businesses,” said Petro, after the bombings.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Milei pins Malvinas hopes on Trump’s clash with the UK
A leaked Pentagon memo suggesting that the Donald Trump administration is weighing a review of Washington’s support for European “imperial possessions” has reverberated in Buenos Aires, where Argentina’s long-running claim over the Malvinas archipelago — known to the British as the Falkland Islands — has been hindered for decades by Washington’s backing of Westminster.
The memo, which outlined options for punishing NATO members that declined to support Trump’s war on Iran, is not the only recent signal of a possible shift. Last year, Yair Netanyahu, the son of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, posted on X: “I recognize the Malvinas Islands as part of Argentina! 🇦🇷”
A separate report last year by Horacio Verbitsky, an influential Argentine journalist and a sharp critic of President Javier Milei, claimed that government officials had discussed authorizing an American military base on the islands in exchange for Washington’s recognition of Argentine sovereignty.
Such a swap could be sold domestically as a historic restoration, even as effective control of the archipelago passed from the UK to the US.
Milei has seized upon the Pentagon disclosure. Hailing what he called an “unprecedented leap forward,” the Argentine president said his government was “doing everything that is humanly possible so that the Malvinas can return to Argentine hands.” “Our sovereignty is non-negotiable, but we have to be discerning,” he added. “It can only be achieved if cool heads prevail.”
👉 Why it matters. Converging reports suggest the idea has been floated, but not that any serious contest over the islands is in progress. What is striking, rather, is the echo between the Milei government’s reasoning and that of Argentina’s last military dictatorship, which gambled in 1982 that its alignment with Ronald Reagan would buy Washington’s acquiescence in a forcible seizure of the islands.Â
The parallel is instructive. In 1982, the junta’s chief, General Leopoldo Galtieri, was banking on a thaw with Washington after years of friction under President Jimmy Carter.
His dictatorship had lent Washington some of its most seasoned state-terror practitioners for the brutal anti-communist campaigns in Nicaragua, Honduras and Guatemala, and expected the favor to be returned when Argentine troops came ashore on the Malvinas.
While Reagan did try to mediate the conflict, the longstanding Anglo-American alliance proved decisive. Argentina found itself diplomatically isolated as the Royal Navy steamed towards the South Atlantic.
Milei’s alignment with Trump is, by any measure, tight — underscored by the US Treasury’s unprecedented bailout of his government during a run on the Argentine peso. The aid stabilized the economy ahead of last year’s midterms, which Milei’s coalition won.
But the ties between the US and UK run much deeper than the circumstantial ideological alignments between the two governments, from intelligence and security cooperation to their shared historical and cultural ancestry, and they would take much more than Trump’s bravado to undo.
King Charles III flew to Washington this week on what amounted to a repair mission. Addressing a joint meeting of Congress on Tuesday, the monarch called the transatlantic alliance “indispensable” and urged the US not to walk away from eight decades of shared commitments.
QUESTION OF THE WEEK
Which of these arguments is NOT used in Argentina’s claim over the Malvinas (Falkland Islands)?
- Administrative continuity
- Geographical proximity
- Illegal British occupation
- Local self-determination
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