The late-rising candidates vying for a place in Peruâs presidential runoff. And the World Bankâs 2026 growth outlook for the region.
PERU ELECTIONS
The late risers vying for a place in Peruâs runoff
Of the 36 candidates who originally signed up for Peruâs presidential election, scheduled to take place this weekend, one passed away during the campaign, and a couple dozen more have barely had a look-in.
The remaining group had been led by two traditional right-wing candidates, Keiko Fujimori and Rafael LĂłpez Aliaga, whose unimpressive early polling numbers we discussed in last weekâs edition.
But in a fragmented and unstable political landscape with weak parties and multiple heads of state ousted over the last decade, many Peruvians only begin to think through their options in the days before the vote. That was the case in 2021, with the late rise of left-wing teacher Pedro Castillo, who surged among the rural electorate to reach the runoff and ultimately beat the polarizing Fujimori.
đ Why it matters. History could repeat itself five years later, as the latest public polls show that multiple outsiders are gaining ground late on in the race, and could sneak into the runoff. Candidates for a last-minute surge include comedian Carlos Ălvarez, Castillo-backed contender Roberto SĂĄnchez, and an old-school politician by the name of Ricardo Belmont.
Despite a polling blackout in Peru since April 6, The Brazilian Report still has the right to access and publish surveys made at a later date, due to its status as an international outlet. The results are stunning: days before the vote, âblank & undecidedâ voters remain the largest grouping, followed by âothers,â which includes 26 candidates that poll at or below 2%.
The leading individual candidate is Keiko Fujimori, who has risen slightly in recent days and looks to be a decent bet to reach the June 7 runoff. Fujimoriâs party apparatus has been a big asset for her in prior elections, proving enough to reach runoffs in 2011, 2016 and 2021 â even if she lost all three due to her high disapproval ratings.
LĂłpez Aliaga, however, has been losing momentum and dropped from second to fourth in betting market odds. Undecided voters, more common in his weakest demographics such as rural and female voters, are seemingly breaking for other candidates.
The first contender to overtake LĂłpez Aliaga was comedian Carlos Ălvarez, who rose to fame with his show Las mil y una de Carlos Ălvarez in the 1990s, imitating Fujimoriâs dictator father, Alberto, as well as many figures from the opposition. His candidacy also leans right on issues such as crime, but his outsider credentials help him in the current climate of skepticism toward Peruâs political establishment.
Earlier this week, Ălvarez was briefly seen as the likeliest winner, given his favorability in a hypothetical runoff against Fujimori, which combined with a strong momentum that could see pragmatic LĂłpez Aliaga voters shift to him in order to end the leftâs chances.
But two left-wing candidates have also been gaining strength:
- Roberto SĂĄnchez Palomino
SĂĄnchez endorsed Castillo in the 2021 runoff and wound up as his trade and tourism minister. He briefly distanced himself from Castillo after his failed self-coup attempt, but now openly defends his presidency and has gained ground among his former voters.
As he testified in a corruption trial this week, Castillo dedicated a moment to endorse SĂĄnchez. âPeople need real justice. Things will only change if they mark the Together for Peru checkbox on April 12,â Castillo said before the judge muted his microphone.
- Ricardo Belmont
At one point, SĂĄnchez looked like the leftâs best bet, taking over the rural vote like Castillo did in 2021. But the 80-year-old Belmont is now surging amongst the youth. In long and storied career, Belmont won the Lima mayoral race as an outsider in 1989, navigated corruption allegations, forged alliances ranging from the centrist AcciĂłn Popular to a Marxist-Leninist like Vladimir CerrĂłn, owned a sports club and a TV channel, and hosted multiple shows that honed his skills as a public speaker.
With his closing rally in Lima drawing a large crowd for Peruâs current apathetic standards, Belmont channeled the regionâs most successful left-wing politician of the decade, Mexicoâs AndrĂ©s Manuel âAMLOâ LĂłpez Obrador, calling for âhugs, not bulletsâ as the right response to Peruâs crime wave.
The approach could be seen as refreshing to those tired of the same tough-on-crime clichĂ©s found on most presidential tickets, and was coupled with AMLO-like attacks against Peruâs corrupt political caste.
âWhen the government is full of people who steal, people learn from their cues. Because nothing is more contagious than setting an example,â Belmont said. Betting markets now make him the second most-likely winner, right behind Fujimori â and fighting head-to-head with Ălvarez.
Below this top five lie social democrats Jorge Nieto and Alfonso LĂłpez Chau, although they havenât gathered the momentum they had hoped for in the last week of the campaign.
Those two, and a few other semi-competitive leaders, will be hoping to secure seats in Peruâs powerful Congress, known for its shady pacts and constant ousting of presidents. The legislature will be reformed from a unicameral assembly to a bicameral arrangement, restoring the Senate after years of congressional dysfunction.
ECONOMY
Dimming growth prospects add to regional concerns
The latest World Bank economic update for Latin America & the Caribbean painted a picture of economic stagnation and dimming growth prospects for the region, as persistently low investment leads to next to no progress when adjusted for population growth, even if the latter is also slowing.
đ Why it matters. Analysts revised their 2026 projection downward from 2.5% to 2.1%, indicating that the regional economy would slow down in comparison with the 2.4% growth recorded a year earlier. But situations differ significantly across countries, so a more detailed breakdown is needed to understand the full picture.
The worst prospects for 2026 come in Bolivia, where Rodrigo Pazâs subsidy cuts are expected to lead to a 3.2% year-on-year GDP contraction. The World Bank believes it will be worth it, predicting a sharp 4% rebound in 2027, while Bolivians are already seeing some signs of hope regarding inflation, which posted its second consecutive month in negative territory this March.
After a brutal four-year stretch finishing as the most rapidly declining country in the region, Haiti will come out of negative territory in 2026, although not by much. World Bank analysts expect the beleaguered Caribbean nation to grow by 0.6%, still below its population growth rates and far from making up for years of recession.
The largest countries in the region are not looking dynamic, with Brazil expected to grow by 1.6% this year, down from an estimated 2.3% in 2025 and 3.4% in 2024. Mexico is also looking weak, posting just 0.6% growth last year and only expected to gain 1.3% in 2026.
âBrazil and Mexico face slower momentum amid tight domestic financial conditions, limited fiscal space and trade policy uncertainty,â the report says, contrasting them with their slightly stronger peers in Chile and Peru, where moderate growth will be âsupported by investment in mining and infrastructure, alongside gradually improving domestic conditions.â
The best turnaround story came from Javier Mileiâs Argentina, which went from a 1.3% decline during his first year in office, marked by budget cuts and a currency devaluation, to 4.4% growth in 2025 and a 3.6% projection this year, led by energy and mining projects that have benefited from sector-specific legislation.
The country will need to continue compressing sovereign risk to roll over its debt and sustain its recovery, given the large loan maturities looming on the horizon.
Ecuador also recovered, but for very different reasons: its growth rate jumped from -2% in 2024 to 3.7% in 2025 after the hydroelectricity crisis caused by a drought subsided last year. The World Bank expects more modest growth in the years to come, although energy risks remain present.
Central American countries also performed well, with Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras maintaining comparatively robust growth, underpinned by flows of remittances, service exports and deeper integration into regional value chains. Even Nicaragua has posted strong figures, despite its political uncoupling from the West during Daniel Ortegaâs government.
But the best forecast for 2026 was once again Paraguay, following on its impressive 6.6% growth in 2025 with another positive 4.4% estimate this year. The expansion is âsupported by strong agricultural exports, expanding electricity generation and a stable macro framework,â analysts said.
Due to a lack of credible data, Venezuela and Cuba were once again left out of the report.
QUESTION OF THE WEEK
Which of these countries posted more consecutive years of economic growth before the Covid pandemic, according to the World Bank?
- Bolivia
- Colombia
- Chile
- Peru
QUICK CATCH-UP
đ§ In another divisive legislative victory, Javier Milei reformed Argentinaâs 2010 glacier protection law, which banned mining and exploration in all glacier and periglacier environments, introducing more flexible legislation that allows for projects that contemplate environmental impacts and grants larger autonomy to each province.
The government argues that Argentina has lagged far behind Chile and Peru in mining in the Andes due to overly restrictive regulations.
đ«° Ecuador raised tariffs on Colombian imports for the third time this year. Products from the other side of the border will now pay a 100% surcharge, up from 30% and 50% earlier in 2026, with President Daniel Noboa calling it a âsecurity feeâ for lack of progress in controlling the cartel-run binational border.
đŁ For the first time since 2002, when protests led to a failed coup attempt in Caracas, unions marched near Venezuelaâs presidential palace to demand higher salaries and pensions after years of economic struggle. Delcy RodrĂguezâs government promised to increase the minimum wage from May 1, amid improved oil proceeds throughout 2026.