Evelyn Matthei, José Antonio Kast and Johannes Kaiser fight over a single spot in Chile’s runoff. And Ecuador’s referendum could open the door to constitutional reform and US military bases.
ELECTIONS
Three right-wing candidates vie to join Jara in Chilean runoff
As The Brazilian Report has noted, in the years since Chile’s 2019 wave of social protests, when millions took to the streets demanding economic reforms against inequality, the country’s society has actually shifted rightwards.
But that conservative turn has come with political divisions, leading analysts to believe that Communist Party candidate Jeannette Jara is the only real shoo-in for a runoff after ballots from Sunday’s presidential election are fully counted.
Jara defeated more moderate rivals to win the left-wing primary vote earlier this year and is expected to capture most of President Gabriel Boric’s supporters — who make up around one-third of the electorate, according to the latest polls. That share seems enough to put her in first place come November 16, though it remains well short of the 50% she would need for an outright victory.
Her runoff challenger will likely come from the right, though how far to the right remains unclear. From the most moderate to the most hard-line, these are Evelyn Matthei, José Antonio Kast and Johannes Kaiser. Hard-to-pin-down populist Franco Parisi also stands a chance, as fragmentation of the right-wing vote could see him slip into the second round.
👉 Why it matters. Whoever secures the runoff berth against Jara is viewed as the likely winner of the election, as most pollsters believe the Communist Party candidate would lose a head-to-head matchup to any right-wing adversary — though the margin of defeat would depend on the opponent.
Although polling is not allowed during the final two weeks before the vote and November surveys cannot be published, most prior measurements had shown signs that Matthei’s candidacy was stagnating or declining. Prediction markets, which had cast her as an early favorite, now place her in a distant fourth.
Matthei’s challenges mirror those of other establishment conservatives: she struggles to connect with voters beyond affluent, older and highly educated districts, especially when compared with figures of the ascendant new right, and she is seen as too moderate and ineffectual in an increasingly polarized landscape. Her campaign has also wavered ideologically, partnering with centrist groups such as the Christian Democrats while downplaying the abuses of Chile’s military dictatorship.
Her replacement as betting markets’ favorite has been Kast, a defender of General Augusto Pinochet’s regime, who praises its market-oriented economic policies (his brother, Miguel Kast, served as a key minister under the dictatorship) while disavowing its horrific human rights record.
Kast has already fallen short in two presidential bids — most recently in 2021, when he lost the runoff to Boric. That year, centrist voters rallied behind Boric amid concern over Kast’s ultra-conservative viewpoints, including his opposition to abortion even in cases of rape or risk to the mother’s life.
His 2025 campaign has steered closer to Chile’s median voter, focusing heavily on crime and public security — an issue that has become a top concern among several of the region’s countries.
Kaiser, meanwhile, reckons Kast is too moderate, portraying him as part of Chile’s entrenched political class — a strategy reminiscent of Javier Milei’s successful outsider campaign in Argentina. Kaiser cut ties with Kast’s party after Kast backed a constitutional reform draft that incorporated elements of the left’s earlier proposal.
Kaiser’s incendiary style — defending Pinochet’s coup, joking about whether women should vote and calling for the reinstatement of the death penalty — would make him a harder sell to centrist voters in a runoff. But that same approach has helped him siphon momentum from Kast, with analysts detecting a late October surge that could make him truly competitive.
REFERENDUM
Daniel Noboa eyes new constitution in Sunday plebiscite
Not long after this year’s re-election of President Daniel Noboa, Ecuador is facing another crucial vote this weekend, as the government is sponsoring a four-question plebiscite that could transform the country’s political landscape.
👉 Why it matters. The vote could overturn two key aspects of former left-wing President Rafael Correa’s legacy. A referendum to re-authorize foreign military bases would revert his 2008 ban, which forced a noisy US exit from the country, while a popular consultation to create a new constituent assembly could lead to a full rewrite of the national charter.
Ecuador’s current constitution was passed with an overwhelming 64% of the vote shortly after Correa took office in 2007. At the height of South America’s “pink tide” of left-leaning governments, Correa said that his charter could remain in place for 300 years. Depending on how Sunday’s vote goes, it could mark the beginning of its end after less than two decades.
Rewriting Ecuador’s constitution would strike at Correa’s strongest remaining foothold in power. The exiled former head of state already lost his congressional majority this year and saw his protégés lose three presidential elections in a row. In many ways, the vote would consolidate Noboa’s status as Ecuador’s new strongman, replacing Correa as the country’s political center of gravity.
Still, two more popular votes would be required before a new charter is confirmed: one to elect representatives to the constituent assembly, and an exit referendum in which the assembly’s draft will be approved or rejected by the public.
Thinking ahead, Noboa has already announced some of his nominees for the assembly in case his proposal goes forward. During their presentation, the president once again emphasized his tough-on-crime agenda, which he has focused on since he first took office in 2023.
“They wrote the old rules to protect themselves. Now, Ecuador will choose a different path. A new constitution where good prevails over evil, where a criminal is not a priority over you, where they are not set free after entering prison,” Noboa said.
Sunday’s ballot will include three additional yes-or-no questions, each of which would be approved immediately and become constitutional amendments. Citizens will be asked whether state funding for political parties should be eliminated, and if Ecuador’s unicameral assembly should downsize from 151 members to 73.
But the item generating the most noise will be the potential return of foreign military bases to the country. Washington controlled a station in the coastal Ecuadorian city of Manta between 1999 and 2009, when it was dismantled due to Correa’s constitutional ban the previous year. Now, Noboa seems to be angling for its return.
Earlier this month, Noboa and US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem toured the former US base, which is now part of a local airport, to assess the viability of reusing its infrastructure. They also visited an aviation school in Salinas, another strategic coastal city that could serve as a new base location.
After her visit, National Defense Minister Gian Carlo Loffredo said cooperation with the US could help in the fight against organized crime, which remains the top concern among Ecuadorians. “When crime knows no borders, security strategies must also know no borders,” Loffredo argued.
If Noboa gets the results he wants, he will be one step closer to his goal of mirroring El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele, combining his hardman aesthetics with a mandate to quell crime at almost any cost and a growing alliance with the US government.
QUESTION OF THE WEEK
What was the first national constitution to be approved in South America?
- Colombia (1821)
- Brazil (1824)
- Argentina (1853)
- Venezuela (1811)
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