Is Venezuela’s opposition offering oil to convince Trump of regime change? And the Vatican toughens its stance against President Nicolás Maduro.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Venezuelan oil used as a carrot for Trump’s intervention
Before its brutal economic crisis, Venezuela was often described as the Saudi Arabia of the Caribbean, and its oil resources would be featured in any discussion about its political affairs. Now, as the US military buildup near the country’s coast continues, the debate about Venezuela’s oil is inevitably resurfacing.
Recent reports from the US press say that President Nicolás Maduro offered Donald Trump a dominant stake in his country’s oil and mineral ventures in exchange for appeasement. At the same time, Maduro and other top government officials have accused Trump of seeking to oust him in order to tap into Venezuela’s natural resources.
Although Maduro’s word has not been the most trustworthy as of late, natural resources have definitely been a part of the equation in the alliance between Venezuela’s opposition and the US government.
Back in February, Trump’s son Donald Jr. told opposition leader María Corina Machado in an interview that, while he sympathized with her goal of kicking Maduro out of power after a stolen election, he questioned why the US should risk lives and spend money to serve a foreign cause.
Machado first replied by appealing to causes known to be favored by Trump, saying that Maduro’s fall would end the flow of migrants to the US and thwart his alliances with rival nations like Iran. But her argument then turned to economic interest, saying that her camp would open up local industries to US investment if it were to take power.
“We are going to turn Venezuela from the criminal hub of the Americas into the energy hub of the Americas … We are going to open markets, we are going to kick the government off the oil sector and privatize our industries. We have huge resources and a strategic location just hours from the US. American companies are in a strategic position to invest,” Machado said.
Days later, Machado made an appearance at the most important yearly event for the US energy industry, Houston’s CERAWeek 2025, flanked by exiled former presidential candidate Edmundo González and former leaders of Venezuela’s state-owned oil firm PDVSA that were ousted by Maduro’s predecessor and mentor, Hugo Chávez.
During the conference, Machado’s team made a sales pitch to US investors, promising that their government would be a more trustworthy partner than Maduro’s, with a strong rule of law and protection for private property. Oil fields, refineries and midstream assets would also be open to foreign investment, as PDVSA would become more flexible towards public-private partnerships.
👉 Why it matters. Trump’s transactional nature, combined with his America First stance, means that a regime change operation would need to be sold to him as beneficial back home. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a key proponent of ousting Maduro, has already made inroads in this regard by framing military deployment in the region as an anti-narcotics operation, and the prospect of new business opportunities could add to the lure for the US president.
A few weeks ago, Trump admitted that he authorized covert CIA involvement in Venezuela and is even considering expanding military operations to Venezuelan soil. His words came after what has been described as the largest such deployment in Latin America since the Cuban Missile Crisis.
The Venezuelan government has denounced the opposition’s tactic as a “desperate attempt to give away Venezuelan sovereignty to foreign interests.” Machado, meanwhile, argues that a post-Maduro oil industry could recover the levels of production seen before Chávez took office in 1999, creating a “win-win” scenario for both countries.
This week, a poll from Atlas Intel said that 53% of Latin Americans support US military intervention to oust Maduro from power. In comparison, only 35% oppose it, another factor that could swing Trump, given the importance of the Latino vote in his recent re-election.
These numbers, however, must not be read as Latin Americans welcoming any form of US intervention. Instead, it reflects the mood in the region towards Maduro, as the Venezuelan socioeconomic collapse led millions to flee to neighboring countries — notably Colombia — sparking heated debates about immigration and border control.
Also, the idea continues to be rejected by a majority of US citizens, according to a recent YouGov survey.
DIPLOMACY
The Vatican toughens stance on Nicolás Maduro
Pope Francis’s time as the leader of the Catholic Church was marked by his outspoken stance on worldly issues, from divorce and homosexuality to political conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza and the US border, ruffling feathers in and outside the Church and turning him into one of the most influential figures on the planet.
After Francis’s passing this year, analysts saw the election of US-Peruvian Pope Leo XIV as a sign of moderate continuity, given his close ties with the former pontiff, who appointed most of the cardinals that ultimately elected his successor.
But one Vatican position is showing a significant shift, as the Holy See has toughened its stance on Venezuela’s government, causing a direct clash with President Nicolás Maduro last month during the canonization of the two first Venezuelan saints in Catholic history.
With tensions between Washington and Caracas escalating — amid the US sending warships and aircraft carriers near the coast of Venezuela and shooting down speedboats that it said were trafficking drugs — Maduro penned a letter to Leo XIV, seeking his intervention to mediate in the regional crisis.
“[Leo XIV] has positioned himself as a balanced, peaceful pope, who will carry on the legacy of Pope Francis … I sent him a letter asking him for help, so that he can embrace Venezuela with his words, with his blessings and with his diplomacy,” Maduro said in an interview. But the Vatican was not as diplomatic as Maduro had hoped.
During a mass celebrating the saints’ lives, with government delegates sitting in the front rows, Cardinal Secretary of State Pietro Parolin — the highest Vatican authority below the pope — made multiple calls for democracy, human rights and the liberation of political prisoners in the country.
“Listen to the words of the Lord, who calls you to open unjust prisons, to break the chains of oppression, to set the oppressed free,” Parolin said. “Only in this way, dear Venezuela, will you be able to respond to your vocation of peace: if you build it on the foundations of respect for human rights, by creating spaces for encounter and democratic coexistence.”
Shortly after those comments, Venezuela’s armed forces blocked Cardinal Baltazar Porras, the highest national figure in the Vatican, from visiting the hometown of newly-named Saint José Gregorio Hernández. Opposition leader (and recent Nobel Peace Prize winner) María Corina Machado said it was an act of “desperate violence against the Church,” while President Maduro accused Porras of secretly conspiring against Hernández’s canonization.
👉 Why it matters. Latin America’s Catholic majority gives the Vatican significant clout in the region, and it has acted as a mediator in many sensitive conflicts, from stopping a war between Chile and Argentina in 1978 to reopening talks between Cuba and the US during Barack Obama’s government (2009-2017).
Under Pope Francis, the Vatican was one of many foreign actors that tried to mediate between Venezuela’s government and the opposition. Still, many in the latter camp saw the talks as little more than a government “delay tactic,” while right-wingers argued that the efforts only served to “legitimize” Maduro.
Francis delivered his toughest words about the regime months before his death when a journalist pressed him on the matter following Maduro’s fraudulent re-election, arguing that “sooner or later, dictatorships do not end well.” With Maduro’s credibility now hitting rock bottom, Francis’s successors are seemingly ready to become more outspoken.
QUESTION OF THE WEEK
Last week, we asked which South American country, besides Argentina and Paraguay, had recently joined the United States in opposing the end of the Cuban embargo. Every respondent got it right: Brazil, then led by the far-right former President Jair Bolsonaro.
In the later years of his administration, Brazil shifted to abstaining from the annual United Nations vote. Under the left-leaning President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the country has resumed its traditional support for ending the embargo and backing Cuba.
QUICK CATCH-UP
💕 Peru’s Interim President José Jerí is enjoying a honeymoon period shortly after taking office, with 45% of Peruvians approving of his administration — a stark contrast with his predecessor Dina Boluarte, whose support stood in the single digits. The poll found that 78% of Peruvians back Jerí’s state of emergency decrees, which placed the spotlight on the fight against crime — one of the key reasons for Boluarte’s ousting. Still, Jerí should be careful, as presidential honeymoon periods don’t last for long in Peru.
😤 Peru is suspending diplomatic relations with Mexico, its foreign minister announced. The decision came after Mexico offered asylum to former Cabinet Chief Bettsy Chávez. Mexico is already sheltering the family of Peru’s former President Pedro Castillo, who was jailed after attempting a self-coup in 2022 but continued to be supported by Mexico’s ruling party boss, former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
😢 Political violence struck again in Mexico, as Uruapán city mayor Carlos Manzo was gunned down during the country’s famous Day of the Dead celebrations. His assassination took place in the violent western state of Michoacán, which has been consumed by cartel violence.
🚨 Following Donald Trump’s cues, Paraguay will also designate drug cartels as terrorist organizations, a policy that has been adopted by US allies like Ecuador and El Salvador and even by progressives like Guatemala’s Bernardo Arévalo. Brazil’s most notorious narco groups, the Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and Comando Vermelho (CV), which have a strong presence across the Paraguayan border, will be included in the designation.