Parallel vote count in Venezuela puts Maduro in troubled waters. Cuba sees record migration amid economic crisis. And Panama promises Milei-style austerity.
Hello, and welcome to the Latin America Weekly newsletter! In this issue: Parallel vote count in Venezuela puts Maduro in troubled waters. Cuba sees record migration amid economic crisis. And Panama promises Milei-style austerity.
Evidence of fraud mounts as Venezuela’s opposition unveils parallel vote count
If Nicolás Maduro had any remaining legitimacy as a democratic leader, it was torn to shreds in a matter of hours after voting stations closed in Venezuela’s presidential elections this Sunday.
The claim. The government-controlled National Electoral Council (CNE) merely reported that Mr. Maduro had won re-election with 51.2 percent of the vote, beating challenger González’s 44.2 percent. The remaining 4.6 points were adjudicated to “other” candidates, without specifying individual tallies.
The fraud. The CNE website has been down since the election, and no further official details about results in each state, municipality, or individual voting booth have been published, turning the vote tally reported by a government with a track record of vote-rigging practices into a matter of faith.
- Official results contradict the data gathered by opposition representatives at individual voting centers, which overwhelmingly point to a Maduro defeat.
- The CNE report also nears statistical impossibility. Mr. Maduro, Mr. González, and the “others” all obtained vote shares with just one decimal.
- “First, they invented percentages, without realizing that the random chance of three amounts with just one decimal is infinitesimal,” said Andrei Roman, CEO of pollster Atlas Intel. “Then they inferred the total number of votes. It’s painful: imbecility and shamelessness.”
Parallel count. Led by right-wing opposition leader María Corina Machado, who was banned from running but endorsed the centrist Mr. González later, critics of the regime organized a parallel count based on voting booth receipts handed in each individual voting center.
- That parallel count, which is now available online, paints a radically different picture from the official numbers:
In her words. “We have collected receipts from 84 percent of voting centers so far,” Ms. Machado told a large crowd in Caracas, as the public walked to the stage to hand her even more of these physical records. “This is the irrefutable proof that we won and that Edmudo González is our new president-elect.”
Arrests. The Maduro administration argues that it has not published voting center receipts due to alleged “terrorist attacks” against the CNE, carried out online from North Macedonia and led by Ms. Machado herself.
- Rumors of an imminent arrest order against Ms. Machado gained credibility with yesterday’s detention of Freddy Superlano, another well-known opposition politician.
Reactions. Multiple Latin American leaders — from the libertarian Javier Milei of Argentina to Gabriel Boric, Chile’s left-leaning president — condemned Mr. Maduro’s actions. The Venezuelan government expelled ambassadors from Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Peru, Panama, the Dominican Republic, and Uruguay in response.
- China and Russia sided with Mr. Maduro, as did Cuba, Nicaragua, and Bolivia. On the fence were Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia, who said the government should publish detailed results.
- After speaking with Lula, U.S. President Joe Biden said they agreed on “the need for an immediate release of full, transparent, and detailed voting data at the polling station level by the Venezuelan electoral authorities.”
Siege. A standoff between Mr. Maduro and his regional critics is now likely. Government forces have tried to storm Argentina’s embassy in Caracas, which has multiple members of Ms. Machado’s campaign team as refugees.
Audits. The Carter Center, which has specialized in election monitoring for decades and was one of the few NGOs allowed into Venezuela, said the vote “did not meet international standards of electoral integrity and cannot be considered democratic.”
Why it matters. While Mr. Maduro has acted against democracy before, the blatant nature of his latest move has exposed the Chavista regime more than ever.
- Footage of Ms. Machado telling soldiers to lay down weapons and speaking to defiant street crowds about democratic legitimacy feels epoch-changing, reminiscent of the massive street rallies that brought late left-winger Hugo Chávez back to the presidency after a failed right-wing coup in 2002.
Yes, but … Chavismo has since taken control of Venezuela’s army, and Mr. Maduro could still cling on to the presidency through purely violent means, imitating his Nicaraguan counterpart Daniel Ortega.
Record-Breaking Exodus from Cuba
Cuba has suffered a mass-scale exodus as citizens try to escape an economic crisis that has deepened since the Covid pandemic.
- The outflow of migrants has been so intense that even the government in Havana, known for either denying access to migration stats or tampering with real numbers, admitted during a parliamentary session in July that over a million Cubans have left the country in the last two years.
Why it matters. If the data is correct, it means that nearly 10 percent of the entire Cuban population departed between 2021 and 2023, an unprecedented demographic shift in the 21st century.
Private estimates. Cuba’s actual population number could now be below 10 million if 2024 stats are included. And independent studies say the drop has been even sharper.
- According to Cuban economist and demographer Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos, from the Christian Center of Reflection and Dialogue (CCRD), the real decline may have reached a stunning “18 percent of the Cuban population in the last two years.”
- Mr. Albizu-Campos says the real number of Cubans currently on the island would be just 8.6 million. “It is a real humanitarian crisis, and it is getting close to the point of implosion,” he said.
States. The demographer combined data from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection with statistics about visas, parole programs, and irregular arrivals. A total of 738,680 Cubans have arrived in the U.S. alone between October 2021 and April 2024, his estimates say.
- The conclusions are in line with what Jorge Duany, director of the Florida-based Cuban Research Institute, said earlier this year, describing the current exodus as “the highest ever recorded since the start of Fidel Castro’s 1959 Socialist Revolution.”
Birth rates. The trend is further exacerbated when combined with the island’s birth rates, which have reached their lowest level in the last 60 years, when the revolution was in its infancy.
Brain drain. The crisis affects Cuba at multiple levels, starting with a loss of human capital that includes everything from Cuba’s world-famous doctors to young qualified workers.
- The island, which once had the world’s highest rate of doctors per capita at 8.4 in per 100,000 inhabitants, is now playing defense to keep them from migrating by updating their salaries.
Past and present. Since the start of mass-scale nationalizations in 1960, Cuba has seen multiple waves of migrants flee the island, including the daily White House-backed “Freedom Flights” in the 60s, the famous Mariel boatlift in 1980, and the escapees from the “special period” following the demise of the Soviet Union, Cuba’s main economic backer at the time.
Wet feet, dry feet. The U.S. has historically favored migration from the island, including its controversial “wet feet, dry feet” policy that facilitated paperwork for Cubans when compared to Mexicans and other newcomers.
- Only miles away from Cuba, the state of Florida turned into a political and cultural hotbed for anti-Castro migrants, and continues to be central to relations between both countries to this day.
Panama’s new president touts Milei-style austerity measures
Austerity pledges seldom win favor, yet the rise of Argentina’s free-market advocate Javier Milei is stirring aspirations across the region. In Panama, newly elected right-wing president José Raúl Mulino pledges to emulate Mr. Milei’s approach, promising fiscal adjustments in the Central American nation.
In his words. “We want to follow your example,” Mr. Mulino said in a brief phone conversation with Mr. Milei days after taking office this month. “The turnaround you have brought to Argentinian politics shares many similarities with the changes I must implement (in Panama). I have to undertake a very deep clean-up.”
Why it matters. Despite its reputation as a pro-market nation with solid finances, the country has faced multiple recent challenges, including questions about facilitating tax evasion, droughts that have slowed down commerce in the strategic Panama Canal, and protests against inflation and large-scale mining projects.
By the numbers. While living standards are still above regional averages, Panama is facing an economic slowdown. The IMF expects the economy to decelerate sharply this 2024 after a strong pandemic recovery, at 2.5 percent of GDP, compared to 7.3 percent last year and 10.8 percent in 2022.
- The country has also seen its debt levels rise after the pandemic, from 30 to 52 percent. This represents a significant burden for its USD 75 billion economy, which had a fiscal deficit of 3.3 percent in 2023, mostly derived from financing costs.
- The primary deficit, which excludes debt interests, was just 0.9 percent of GDP.
Investment grade. The country’s credit rating is “BBB,” making it one of the few investment-grade bond issuers in the region, but just two notches short of being stripped of this status. Last year, S&P Global Ratings revised Panama’s debt outlook from “stable” to “negative,” indicating increased risks of a future downgrade.
Mulino. The new president is a political protégé of former head of state Ricardo Martinelli, who ruled Panama between 2009 and 2014. Mr. Mulino stepped into the race as his replacement after Mr. Martinelli was sentenced to prison for money laundering.
- Mr. Mulino won the elections in May with just 34.2 percent of the votes. His campaign zeroed in on creating jobs and boosting the tourism industry, as well as restoring market confidence.
Austerity pitch. President Mulino advocated for fiscal cuts since his inaugural speech, while also promoting public works such as new roads and train rails.
- Like Mr. Milei, he relies on a bold message against the status quo to champion an agenda of fiscal adjustment.
- “We will prioritize spending wisely by shifting away from political favors and clientelism, redirecting resources where they truly belong: to the Panamanian family,” he said.
Yes, but. Panama’s finances stand on more solid ground than Argentina’s. The country remains the second-richest in Latin America in terms of GDP per capita, trailing only Uruguay, and boasts a diversified economy with a robust history of growth.
- Its strategic geographic location as a logistics hub and potential opportunities for nearshoring could bolster its prospects in years ahead.
Quick catch up
Moody’s declared Paraguay’s debt to be “investment grade,” a significant landmark for one of the fastest-growing economies in the region.
A Chilean pollster said President Gabriel Boric’s approval rating reached its lowest since the start of his term, at just 22 percent.
Peruvian prosecutors shelved genocide accusations against President Dina Boluarte, who was under investigation for the killing of dozens of protesters last year.
The U.S. and Mexico announced a remediation plan for Volkswagen workers in Puebla due to labor rights violations. It includes full payment of delayed wages.
The U.S. arrested two important names in the Mexican drug trade: Joaquín Guzmán López, the son of Mexican drug lord Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, and Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, co-founder of the Sinaloa Cartel.
Faced with mounting pressure due to delayed promises to liberalize the sector, President Javier Milei of Argentina vowed to cut export taxes on items such as dairy products and meat.
Human rights search teams in Uruguay announced the discovery of human bones in a former torture center used during the country’s military dictatorship (1973-1985).
Latin America won its first gold medals in the Paris Olympics: Guatemala’s Adriana Ruano Oliva in women’s trap and Argentina’s José Torres in men’s BMX freestyle.